# Quitting Your Job to Day Trade? 97% of Persistent Traders Still Lose Money

Cite as: Gorak, R. (2026). Quitting Your Job to Day Trade? 97% of Persistent Traders Still Lose Money. Tradicted. https://www.tradicted.com/research/chagu-day-2020/
Paper: Fernando Chagué and Rodrigo De-Losso and Bruno Giovannetti — *Day Trading for a Living?*
Published in: SSRN Working Paper (2020)
Original: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101

Key finding: 97% of the 1,551 individuals who persisted in day trading mini-Ibovespa futures for more than 300 days (Brazil) lost money net of fees.

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Day trading is the practice of buying and selling the same financial asset, in the same quantity, within a single trading day. The paper "Day trading for a living?" by Chague, De-Losso, and Giovannetti (2020) analyzed Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) records on 19,646 individuals. The individuals began day trading Brazilian mini-Ibovespa futures between 2013 and 2015, tracked through 2017. They found that 97% of the 1,551 individuals who persisted for more than 300 trading days lost money net of fees. Only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage, and only 0.5% earned more than a bank teller's initial salary. Both achievements came with great risk.

## What the Study Found

97% of the 1,551 individuals who day traded mini-Ibovespa futures for more than 300 days lost money net of fees. Only 17 individuals, 1.1% of the 1,551 persistent traders, earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage of US$16 per day. Only 8 individuals, 0.5% of the 1,551 persistent traders, earned more than a bank teller's initial salary of US$54 per day. The single highest-earning day trader in the sample earned US$310 per day on average, with a standard deviation of US$2,560. Of the 19,646 individuals who began day trading between 2013 and 2015, 50.8% traded between 2 and 50 days. Only 7.9% of those individuals persisted beyond 300 days.

## Methodology

The study uses individual-level day trading records from the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the Brazilian securities regulator, covering mini-Ibovespa futures contracts. The full sample includes 19,646 individuals who began day trading between 2013 and 2015, observed from 2012 through 2017. Learning effects were tested with individual-day panel regressions on 714,637 observations from the 1,551 traders who persisted beyond 300 days. All regressions include day trader fixed effects, with standard errors clustered at the investor level.

## Key Statistics

| Metric | Finding | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Investors who lost money | 97% | Persistent traders (>300 days), net of fees |
| Earned more than minimum wage | 1.1% (17 of 1,551) | US$16/day benchmark |
| Earned more than bank teller salary | 0.5% (8 of 1,551) | US$54/day benchmark |
| Top earner's average daily profit | US$310 | Standard deviation of US$2,560 |
| Seq coefficient on daily net profit | -0.019* (SE 0.011) | Table 1, column 3, N=714,637 |

## Why This Matters

Day trading courses that promise a livable income are not supported by the data for most participants. Profitability does not improve between the first and last third of an investor's trading days, indicating that experience alone does not yield skill. Day traders face competition from institutional high-frequency trading algorithms that were less common in earlier studies of trader performance. The extreme volatility behind the few profitable outcomes implies that any apparent success is difficult to distinguish from luck rather than skill. The study measured people trading real capital. A [day trading simulator](/tools/day-trading-simulator/) reproduces the same time pressure without the fee drag that put most of these 19,646 accounts underwater.

## FAQ

### What percentage of day traders lose money?

97% of the 1,551 individuals who persisted in day trading Brazilian mini-Ibovespa futures for more than 300 days lost money net of fees. Chague, De-Losso, and Giovannetti (2020) tracked 19,646 individuals who began day trading between 2013 and 2015 using CVM records through 2017.

### What is day trading?

19,646 individuals were studied by Chague, De-Losso, and Giovannetti (2020), who define day trading as buying and selling one asset, same amount, same day. The study found that day trading for a living is virtually impossible, even when tracked through 2017.

### Does experience improve day trading profitability over time?

-0.019* was the coefficient on seq, the variable ordering each trader's chronological trading day, for daily net profit. The regression used 714,637 observations from persistent day traders. Chague, De-Losso, and Giovannetti (2020) found no evidence of learning by doing among these traders.

### How much risk do profitable day traders take on?

US$632 to US$3,308 was the range of daily profit standard deviation among the 8 day traders who earned more than a bank teller's initial salary. Chague, De-Losso, and Giovannetti (2020) found even the top earner's US$310 average daily profit carried a standard deviation of US$2,560.

## Source

Chague, F., De-Losso, R., and Giovannetti, B. (2020). Day trading for a living?. SSRN Working Paper.

[Read the full paper →](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101)